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US-Iranian Crisis: Impacts on the Security and Stability of the Middle East
2018-11-19

From 19 November to 20 November 2018 at the Crowne Plaza in Beirut, Lebanon, Al Quds Center for Political Studies in collaboration with Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung hosted a conference entitled, "US-Iranian Crisis: Impacts on the Security and Stability of the Middle East." The event hosted experts, researchers, and political analysts from Iran, the United States, Russia, Europe, Jordan, and other Arab states who discussed the following topics:

1. Insiders’ views on Iran: examining the internal dynamics resulting from ratification of JCPOA and the United States’ decision to withdraw from it;

2. The Iranian response to Washington’s strict sanctions placed upon on the Islamic Republic, and Tehran’s options regarding open confrontation with the United States;

3. How regional crises will be affected by escalating US-Iranian tensions (namely, GCC tensions, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict);
The US-Iranian crisis from international perspectives;

4. Charting next steps: developing proposals and policy recommendations for Jordanian decision-makers to avoid adverse repercussions of the US-Iranian conflict on Jordan.

5. US-Iranian relations took a strategic turn when US President Donald Trump’s administration unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear agreement struck between Iran and the international community and approved by the UN Security Council.

The conference provided a nuanced analysis of the challenges and threats facing Jordan’s security, stability, and interests as a result of the growing tension between Iran and the international community. This conversation is especially pressing for Jordan, since the country is linked to a network of relations and alliances with the United States and allies in the region.

Program:

Day 1: 19.11.2018 

Opening Session: Welcome and Introduction

10:00 - 10:30 AM

* Mr. Oraib Al Rantawi, Director General, Al Quds Center for Political Studies

* Dr. Annette Ranko, Resident Representative Jordan, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung

First Session: Insiders’ Views on Iran

10:30 - 12:00 PM

Session Topics:

* Insiders’ views on Iran: examining the internal dynamics resulting from ratification of JCPOA and the United States’ decision to withdraw from it;

* The impact of US sanctions on regime stability and the balance of power in Tehran, the potential development of popular protest, and the impacts of all this on Iranian regional foreign policy in the next state;

* What are the chances of Tehran accepting the resumption of negotiations on a new agreement, including on its nuclear and missile programs and its regional role? What are the consequences of Iran’s insistence on rejecting European proposals for a broader and more inclusive dialogue including above topics?

Session Moderator: Dr. Sabri Erbihat, Former Minister of Political Development, Jordan

Speakers:

* Mr.Abbas Khameh Yar, Former Diplomat, Researcher and Political Analyst in Iranian affairs

* Dr. Mohammad Al Saeed Idris, Consultant, Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.

Second Session: Insider’s Views on Iran Continued… 

12:30 - 02:30 PM

Session Topics:

* The Iranian response to Washington’s strict sanctions on the Islamic Republic. What are Tehran’s options in the open confrontation with the United States?

* The ability of the Iranian economy to respond to the new regime of sanctions;

* The fate of Iranian social movements, and how Tehran will deal with them.

Session Moderator: Dr. Sabri Erbihat, Former Minister of Political Development, Jordan

Speakers:

* Dr. Mohammad Marandi, Professor of Political Science at the University of Tehran, Iran;

* Dr. Alam Saleh, Lecturer in Middle East Politics at Lancaster University, United Kingdom.

Third Session: International Perspectives on Iran

03:30 - 05:00 PM 

Session Moderator: Mr. Adnan Al Sawair, Former Member of Jordanian Parliament

Speakers:

* Dr. Robert Riggs, Professor of Political Science and Expert on Iranian Affairs, United States of America

* Dr. Yulia Sveshnikova, Research Fellow, National Research University “Higher School of Economics,” and Consultant at PIR-Center, Russian Federation.

Day 2: 20.11.2018 

Fourth Session: How Regional Crises Will Be Affected by Escalating US-Iranian Tensions: the Case of the Gulf Cooperation Council

10:00 - 12:00 PM

Session Moderator: Dr. Hassan Nafaa, Professor of Political Science at Cairo University, Egypt

Speakers:

* Mr. Sulaiman Al Oqeliy, Political Columnist and Analyst, Saudi Arabia;

* Dr. Zafir Alajmi, Expert Strategist and Executive Director of Gulf Monitoring Group, Kuwait;

* Dr. Fahad Ebrahim Al Shehabi, Secretary General of Arab Gulf Forum For Strategic Planning.

Fifth Session: How Regional Crises Will Be Affected by Escalating US-Iranian Tensions: the Cases of Syria and Iraq

12:30 - 02:30 PM

Session Moderator: Mr. Hatem Rachid, Writer and Political Analyst,Jordan

Speakers:

* Dr. Haidar Saʿeed, Researcher and Academic,Iraq.

* Dr. Hassan Faraj, Member of the General Secretariat of the Syrian National Democratic Conference

Sixth Session: How Regional Crises Will Be Affected by Escalating US-Iranian Tensions: the Cases of Jordan and Lebanon:

03:30 - 05:30 PM 

Session Moderator: Mr. Oraib Al Rantawi, Director General, Al Quds Center for Political Studies

Speakers:

* Dr. Hoda Rizk, Professor of Political Sciences in Lebanese University, Lebanon; Researcher in Regional Conflicts;

* Major General Mr. Mahmoud Erdesat, Researcher and Expert in Strategic Affairs, Jordan; Speaking On Trends of Arab Public Opinion with Regard to Threat Perception:

* Mr. Fares Braizat, Chairman of NAMA Strategic Intelligence Solutions, Jordan

For photos of the event, please click the following link:  https://photos.app.goo.gl/ahxRMUJo5oMkJPyr8