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Jordan in a Changing Regional and International Environment: The Upcoming Scenarios -3-

08/02/2020

 8-9th February 2020, InterContinental Hotel Amman

Program
Saturday, February 8, 2020

09.00 – 09.30
Reception and Registration

09.30 – 10.00
Opening Session: Welcome and Opening Remarks
Opening Remarks of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS)
Dr. Annette Ranko, Director of KAS Jordan Office

Opening Remarks of Al-Quds Center for Political Studies
Mr. Oraib Al Rantawi, Director-General of Al-Quds Center for Political Studies

10.00 – 12.00    
First Session: Jordan in a Changing Regional and International Environment – Overview
Moderator: H.E. Dr. Mustafa Hamarneh, President of The Economic and Social Council (ESC), Jordan

Session Topics:

- Has Jordan’s strategic position changed amid the “changing world order”? What are the strengths and weaknesses influencing Jordan’s position and role in the upcoming period? How should Jordan act amid these emerging global conditions?

- Jordan’s standing in a troubled region, Jordan’s position in the changing maps of regional alliances and axes, strengths and weaknesses, as well options and alternatives going forward in light of the changing priorities of regional power centres and the “power balance” shifts among them.

- Jordan and the Palestinian cause in light of the difficulty in executing the “two-state solution” and the new developments in the U.S. – Israel relationship (Deal of the Century): What roles should Jordan play and what are the repercussions of these developments on Jordan’s role and interests?

- Has Jordan’s position shrunk? Why and how did that happen, and how can Jordan take the lead once more?

Speakers:

H.E. Mr. Taher Masri, Former Prime Minister, Jordan

Dr. Michele Dunne, Director and Senior Fellow, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, United States

12.00 – 12.30
Coffee Break

12.30 – 14.30    
Second Session: Jordan and the United States
Moderator: H.E. Ms. Jumana Ghunaimat, Former Jordanian Minister of State for Media Affairs and Government Spokesperson, Jordan

Session Topics:

- The impact of the transformations in U.S. foreign policy priorities in the region on Washington’s view of Jordan’s position and its future roles: Is Jordan still a “strategic ally” of the U.S.? What are the roles and functions that Jordan is expected to accomplish (peace process, war on terror, containment of Iran)?

- The Grand Paradox: How can Jordan reconcile between fact that the U.S. is its primary ally and supporter, on the one hand, and the fact that Washington’s policies with regard to the Palestinian are causing severe damage to Jordan’s security, stability and national identity on the other?

- Jordan’s “dependency” on the U.S., its future repercussions and how to “manage” it in a world that is becoming more and more multi-polar? Does Jordan have other options or alternatives? How feasible and effective are they?

Speakers:

H.E. Dr. Marwan Muasher, Former Foreign Minister, Former Deputy Prime Minister, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Jordan

Dr. Curtis R. Ryan, Professor of Political Science at Appalachian State University in North Carolina, United States

H.E. Dr. Mohammad Al Momani, Former Minister of State for Media Affairs., former Government Spokesperson and Chairman of the Board of the Jordan National Radio and Television, Jordan

14.30 – 15.30
Lunch Break

15.30 – 17.30    
Third Session: Jordan and the Gulf
Moderator: H.E. Dr. Muhammad Al-Halayqa, Former Deputy Prime Minister, former Minister of Industry and Trade, Jordan

Session Topics:

-How can Jordan’s strategic position be restored from the Gulf perspective? Is this an achievable goal?

-How will these relations develop in the medium and long term, given the decline in the strategic role of oil on the global energy market?

-Is Jordan capable of joining Gulf states in their direct wars and “proxy wars” with Iran?

-Which aspects of Jordan’s relations with the Gulf should be reviewed and which of these aspects should be sustained?

Speakers:

H.E. Dr. Jawad Anani, Former Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, Jordan

Dr. Stephan Roll, Head of Research Division: Middle East and Africa, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, SWP, Germany

H.E. Dr. Khalil bin Abdullah Al-Khalil, Academic, Writer, Journalist, Former Member of the Shura Council, Saudi Arabia

Dr. Abdullah Alshayji, Professor of Political Science at Kuwait University, Kuwait

Mr. Mohamed Alyahyai, Journalist and the Adviser for the Minister of Heritage and Culture, Sultanate of Oman

Sunday, February 9, 2020

Second Day

09.00 – 09.30    
Reception and Registration

09.30 – 11.30    
Fourth Session: Jordan amid a “Changing World Order”: Options and Alternatives Going Forward
Moderator: Dr. Joas Wagemakers, Professor at Utrecht University Department of Philosophy and Religious Studies Islamic and Arabic Studies, Netherlands

Session Topics:

-Jordan and the European Union: An active economic partnership and a limited political role

-The UK after Brexit: Future options

-Russia, an emerging power in the region: Opportunities and challenges

-China and the Belt and Road Initiative: Where does Jordan fit in?

Speakers:

Dr. Alastair Crooke, The Founder and Director of the Conflicts Forum, UK

Dr. Alan George, Senior Research Fellow at King's College London, UK

Ms. Maria Al Makahleh (Dubovikova), President of the Moscow-based International Middle Eastern Studies Club (IMESClub), Russia

11.30 – 12.00    
Coffee Break

12.00 – 14.00    
Fifth Session: Jordan and Israel: 25 Years after the Peace Treaty
Moderator: H.E. Dr. Sabri Erbihat, Former Minister of Political Development, Jordan

Session Topics:

-How is Jordan dealing with Israel’s shift towards religious and nationalist rightwing forces?

-Is Jordanian-Israeli peace a one-way trajectory? Taking into account the theory on the “inseparable or separable Palestinian and Jordanian fates”, will Israel succeed in separating the Palestinian case from other peacemaking and normalization trajectories with Jordan, Egypt and the rest of the Arab World?

-Should the belief that “Jordan’s security and stability are part of Israel’s security and stability” be subjected to review and reconsideration in light of the profound transformations at the social and government levels in Israel, particularly given that settlement, expansion and annexation of occupied territories take priority over any other consideration in Israel’s agenda?

Speakers:

Dr. Rosemary Hollis, former Professor of Middle East Policy Studies, City, University of London, UK

Dr. Shibley Telhami, Professor in the Department of Government and Politics at the University of Maryland, United States

Dr. Hassan A. Barari, Professor of Political Science at the University of Jordan, Jordan

Dr. Muhannad Mustafa, General Director of Mada Al-Carmel Center - Arab Center for Applied Social Studies, Palestine

Dr. Bilal Al-Shobaki, Professor of Political Science at Hebron University, Palestine

14.00 – 15.00    
Lunch Break

15.00 – 17.00    
Sixth Session : Jordan and Regional Powers (Iran, Turkey)
Moderator: H.E.  Dr. Muhammad Abu Rumman, Former Minister of Culture and Youth, Jordan

Session Topics:

- How should Jordan’s relations be with conflicting regional axes: Turkey, Iran and, by extrapolation, Qatar, Syria, Iraq and non-state actors supported by Ankara (the Muslim Brotherhood) or Tehran (the Houthis, Hezbollah and the Popular Mobilization Forces)?

- What are the limits of these relations and where can they lead to? What are the opportunities and challenges inherent in these relations? Are “balanced” regional relations an executable and practicable formula?

Speakers:

Dr. Esen KirdiƟ, Associate Professor in International Studies at Rhodes College, United States

Dr. Alam Saleh, Council Member of British Society for Middle Eastern Studies, UK

Dr. André Bank, Senior Research Fellow at GIGA Institute of Middle East Studies, Germany

Dr. Fatima Ahmad Alsmadi,  Senior Researcher at Research Department Al Jazeera Center for Studies, Jordan